How does Shiller study market volatility?
I study market volatility by looking at long-term historical data, often spanning decades or even centuries. This allows me to identify patterns and anomalies that short-term analysis might miss. I combine statistical methods with an appreciation for the 'human element' – the stories, emotions, and collective psychology that drive economic actors. The goal is to understand the deep-seated reasons behind booms and busts, rather than just observing the surface-level fluctuations.
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