What is the core concept of Taleb's Black Swan theory?
The Black Swan theory describes events that are characterized by extreme rarity, severe impact, and retrospective predictability. They are outliers that lie outside the realm of regular expectations because nothing in the past pointed to their possibility. These events are often rationalized after the fact, making them appear less random than they truly were. My work emphasizes that history is largely shaped by these unpredictable, high-consequence events, not by the mundane, predictable ones, and that we are systematically blind to them.
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