Thomas Schelling's "Arms and Influence" argues that military capabilities, real or imagined, function as bargaining power rather than solely as instruments for direct victory. In a world of nuclear weapons, military power is less about execution and more about the threat of its use, constituting a form of "diplomacy of violence." Schelling demonstrates how these military capabilities, skillfully or clumsily employed, are central to diplomatic communication and negotiation. The book examines how actions taken during international crises, like the Berlin and Cuban crises, served as strategic signals to adversaries, highlighting the crucial role of intelligence in shaping these communications.
Schelling's framework, originally developed during the Cold War era of superpowers and mutually assured destruction, remains relevant in contemporary multipolar conflicts, even those occurring online. The book offers a hardheaded analysis of how coercive threats and the management of military capabilities are integral to international relations and the maintenance of peace, or the threat thereof.
Key concepts
- Diplomacy of violence — Military power exercised as bargaining power, used to preserve peace or threaten war.
- Bargaining power — The skillful or clumsy exploitation of military capabilities, real or imagined, in international negotiations.
- Signals to an enemy — Military actions taken during crises that communicate intentions and resolve to an adversary.
- Military communications — Reports from an adversary's own military intelligence serving as critical diplomatic messages.